Vic Monte Sports – NFL Sunday Prop Play

Travis Kelce (KC) OVER 77.5 Receiving Yards

Blog Picks (14-11-1) (2 Losses in a Row)

 

In a recent encounter with the Denver Broncos a few weeks back, it was abundantly clear that Travis Kelce was the sole driving force of the Chiefs’ offensive performance. Everyone, from fans to the opposing defense, could anticipate where the football would be directed, but it made no difference. Kelce’s dominance prevailed, as he hauled in all 9 of his targets for an impressive 124 yards. This level of excellence has become the norm for Kelce when facing the Broncos throughout his career, averaging 79 yards per game against them. Moreover, in his last four outings, he has maintained an astonishing rate of nearly 9 receptions per game, amassing an average of 108 yards each time.

The outlook for Kelce in this upcoming game against a subpar defense is undeniably promising. His consistency and the seemingly unstoppable connection with his quarterback bode well for another standout performance.

Intriguingly, it’s worth mentioning that with Travis Kelce’s significant other, Taylor Swift, absent from the stadium, an added layer of motivation may be in play. This game presents an opportunity for Kelce to demonstrate to his teammates and the world that he can excel on the field independently, even without his famous girlfriend watching from the stands. This added motivation could very well fuel Kelce to a Big Game!

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Vic Monte Sports – Monday Night Football Prop Pick

Jauan Jennings (SF) OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards

Blog Picks (11-8-1) (1 Win in a Row)

 

Now, let’s dive into the nitty-gritty of this situation. With Deebo Samuel on the sidelines, there’s a prime opportunity for Jauan Jennings to step up and shine. He’s poised to take on a more significant role, lining up opposite Brandon Aiyuk.

Standing at an imposing 6 feet and 3 inches, Jennings brings an average of 18.1 yards per catch to the table. That’s not just good; it’s remarkable. He’s got the potential to stretch the field and make big plays, and that’s precisely what the 49ers need.

Now, let’s talk matchups. Jennings will often find himself in a one-on-one dance with Vikings corner Byron Murphy. But here’s the juicy part – Murphy has been, well, let’s just say “generous” to opposing receivers this season. He’s allowed a staggering 27 catches on 37 targets, leading to 308 yards and three touchdowns. It’s like an open invitation for wide receivers to have a field day against him.

So, when you’re placing your bet, it’s not just wishful thinking. It’s a well-reasoned analysis based on the potential for Jennings to exploit a favorable matchup. With all these factors in play, look for Jennings to rack up at least 31 yards. It’s not just a bet; it’s a solid opportunity in the making.

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Vic Monte Sports – NFL Sunday Prop Pick

Mac Jones (NE) OVER 4.5 Rushing Yards

 

Blog Picks (10-8-1) (1 Loss in a Row)

Let’s talk about Mac Jones and his rushing yards. It’s a bit of a hot seat situation, you know? Quarterbacks on the edge often want to prove they’re ready to give it all for their team. Last week, we saw Derek Carr put up 14 rushing yards when he needed to step up.

Now, when I look at my projections, I’ve got Jones pegged for about 9 yards on the ground. That makes sense, considering he’s been averaging over 8 rushing yards for the season and an impressive 10.6 at home. Plus, here’s the interesting bit – he’s got a 4-1 track record of going over this mark against Buffalo.

But there’s a twist to the tale. Buffalo’s pass rush is no joke; they’re tied for the league lead in sacks. That means they’re going to chase Jones out of the pocket multiple times. And when that happens, it’s likely he’ll take off running.

So, when you’re eyeing this bet, it’s not just a hunch. It’s backed by numbers, patterns, and the reality that Jones is in the hot seat and will do whatever it takes to save is job! He might just surprise us with his legs in this game.

 

 

 

Vic Monte Sports – NFL TNF Prop Pick

Taysom Hill (NOS) OVER 10.5 Rushing Yards

Blog Picks (8-7-1) (2 wins in a Row)

 

Look, tonight might just be the night when the Saints finally get their act together. Whether it’s Trevor Lawrence or C.J. Beathard calling the shots for Jacksonville, there’s a decent chance the Saints could be in the lead by the second half. And when that happens, guess who’s going to step up to the plate? You got it, Taysom Hill.

Hill’s the man you can count on, no matter how the game unfolds, but especially in the most likely scenario. There’s a reason they’ve invested in him – he’s their secret weapon.

Just to break it down for you, Hill has been running like a freight train, gaining 10 or more yards in pretty much every game, except for that one hiccup last week against Houston. He only had one carry in that game and picked up a measly 2 yards. But here’s the twist – he’s had a bit of downtime, and he’s revved up to take on a hefty workload in this short week.

So, when it comes to having faith in Hill, this game is the one to put your money on. He’s been prepped for this very moment, and my gut tells me he’s going to deliver some Saints magic tonight. Let’s light up a fat joint to that!

 

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Vic Monte Sports – Monday Night Football Prop Play

Quentin Johnston (LAC) OVER 31.5 Receiving Yards

Blog Picks (6-6-1)

 

As Monday night football approaches, the stage is set for a potentially electrifying moment in the Chargers’ passing game. With the unfortunate news of star wide receiver Mike Williams being sidelined for the remainder of the season and Josh Palmer nursing a nagging groin injury, it’s time for another player to step up and shine. That player could very well be Quentin Johnston, who seems poised for a breakout season.

In Week 4, during the game when Williams was sidelined just before the team’s bye week, Johnston’s route participation saw a significant spike. It skyrocketed from a mere 26% in the previous week to nearly 70%. This substantial increase in his role within the offense is a clear indication that the Chargers’ coaching staff sees something special in Johnston, and they are keen on unleashing his potential.

Now, let’s take a look at their upcoming opponent, the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys’ defense has shown a vulnerability in their pass coverage, having allowed at least two wide receivers to exceed this particular receiving total in each of their last three games. This presents an enticing opportunity for the Chargers’ passing game, with both Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston being excellent candidates to capitalize on this weakness.

Johnston might just be the spark that ignites the Chargers to new heights. I’ll Take My Chances with the OVER 31.5 Yards

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Vic Monte Sports – NFL Sunday Prop Play

Raheem Mostert (Mia) OVER 77.5 Rushing Yards

Blog Picks (5-6-1)

 

In the last game against the Giants, Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane had a pretty even split, with Mostert getting 10 carries and Achane taking 11. However, this week, things have taken an interesting turn. Achane is sidelined, and so is Jeff Wilson, leaving Mostert with a golden opportunity.

On Sunday, when they face Carolina, Mostert’s primary competition for carries will be Salvon Ahmed and Chris Brooks. Now, this is where it gets exciting. Mostert has the chance to be the workhorse in the backfield, and he’s shown in the past that he can be a game-changer.

But what really tilts the scales in Mostert’s favor is Carolina’s porous run defense. They’ve been giving up an average of 4.9 yards per carry, and that’s an open invitation for a running back like Mostert to feast.

So, if you’re looking for a solid bet this Sunday, keep an eye on Mostert. He’s in a prime position to dominate carries and take advantage of that Carolina defense. It’s a recipe for a big game and a solid fantasy football performance.

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Vic Monte Sports – NFL Thursday Night Football Prop Play

Javonte Williams (DEN) UNDER 36.5 Rushing Yards

Blog Picks (5-3-1)

Oh, this spot is like finding a golden ticket in a chocolate bar! First off, Javonte Williams, their star running back, is hobbling around with a hip injury. He’s probably feeling about as spry as a sloth in a snail race. I mean, he was slogging along with a paltry 3.6 yards per carry even before his hip decided to throw in the towel.

In his absence, Jaleel Mcglaughlin has been tearing up the turf, (as I said on the week 6 Episode of the Smoke Shop)making the Broncos’ ground game look like a well-oiled machine. And don’t forget Semaje Perine, who’s been chipping in too. Now, here’s the kicker – Kansas City’s defense has been tighter than a pickle jar this season. Only two running backs have managed to break through their line of defense (David Montgomery and Breece Hall), and it’s more likely that the Chiefs will force Denver to throw in the towel on the running game.

There are more ways for this bet to go under than there are flavors at an ice cream shop, and if Williams ends up sitting this one out, well, it’s a free pass. I’m telling you, this spot is as sweet as a cherry on top of a sundae!

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Vic Monte Sports – Monday Night Football Prop Play

Aaron Jones (GB) Anytime Touch Down Scorer (+115)

Blog Free Picks (4-2-1)

Selecting Aaron Jones to score against a Las Vegas defense that has proven to be abysmal in both run-stopping and pass coverage is not just a mere hunch; it’s a confident and well-founded choice. Jones currently stands as the undisputed RB1 for the Green Bay Packers, and his recent return to the lineup, coupled with an ample 11 days of rest leading up to this game, sets the stage for a compelling performance.

Jones’s versatility as a runner and receiver makes him a prime candidate to be a focal point of the Packers’ offensive strategy. It’s reasonable to anticipate that he’ll receive a substantial workload in both rushing attempts and pass-catching opportunities. When it comes to finding the end zone, Jones’s prospects are particularly promising, especially when you consider the enticing odds available for this wager. In fact, I am so confident in his ability to score that I’m even considering placing bets on him to score not just one, but potentially two touchdowns in this matchup.

 

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Vic Monte Sports – Sunday NFL Prop Pick

Garrett Wilson (NYJ) OVER 58.5 Receiving Yards

Blog Free Picks (4-1-1)

Placing trust in Zach Wilson as our quarterback doesn’t exactly instill confidence, but recent events may change our perspective. In Week 4, Wilson surprisingly displayed his potential against the formidable Chiefs defense, a performance that greatly benefited Garrett Wilson. Against all odds, Garrett Wilson managed to secure nine receptions for a total of 60 yards, showcasing a remarkable synergy between the two.

What’s particularly promising is the staggering 14 targets directed towards Garrett Wilson during that game, which underscores his emerging role as a focal point in the passing game. Impressively, this isn’t an isolated incident; over the past three games, Wilson has amassed an astonishing 31 targets, solidifying his status as a go-to option.

Adding more allure to the situation is the Denver Broncos’ defense, which has been struggling significantly, ranking third in the league for allowing the most passing yards per game. Given Garrett Wilson’s undeniable rapport with Zach Wilson and his burgeoning target share, it’s becoming increasingly tempting to consider betting on the over for his yardage prop in the upcoming matchup.

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Vic Monte – Thursday NFL Prop Play

Sam Howell (Wash) OVER 13.5 Rushing Yards (-132)

Blog Free Picks: (2-0-1)

I am making a small play on Commanders QB Sam Howell to rush OVER 13.5 Yards.  If anyone reading this follows me then you already know how highly I think of this rookie. Last week Howell showed you what he can do with this legs! Now OC Eric Bieniemy has a new wrinkle in his playbook!

Sam Howell rushed for 40 yards on 6 carries last week vs the Eagles defense. I think Bieniemy will have a few designed run plays for the hideous Bears defense to worry about. The Bears D is a mess, after blowing a big lead last week they enter the short week banged up. Two injured cornerbacks and their best safety. With all the new personnel in the Bears secondary expect them to lose track of Howell. All it takes is one glitch in the Chicago secondary and we cash this ticket!

Running is something that Howell can do well, but coaches most likely don’t want him to. You know, eyes down field, stay in the pocket, go through your progressions. Yada Yada Yada.. Howell ran for 828 Yards in 2021 for the North Carolina Tar Heels, averaging 4.7 yards per carry! That was good for 7th in the entire ACC! I am Taking My Chances with Howell OVER 13.5 Rushing Yards on Thursday Night Football!

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